Okay, so the market didn’t end in the red today. That’s okay. This is a good thing. Bernanke accomplished his goal of buoying the markets and we achieved a nice healthy 0.7% up day after a 2% down day.
Many traders are anticipating a gap down tomorrow morning to continue this bear trend. However, durable good orders are released before the open and any news right now is being acted on intensely. Technically, there is room for some upside tomorrow as indicated in the chart below. Today’s hammer is a bullish technical pattern, after all.
Although it is possible we gap up slightly tomorrow on durable good orders and/or overnight global markets strength…most likely we continue this strong bear trend and end the day in the red (SPY) around the 147 level…especially after today’s healthy/natural bullish price action.(Which was partially driven by AAPL and rumors of a stock split. Otherwise, we would have only a 0.4% day and I would not be so bearish about tomorrow) This inclination for the SPY to continue its bear path could mean some violent downward action tomorrow if we don’t gap down in the morning.
Bernanke’s testimony included a plea to Washington to not allow the budget cuts to go through because they will surely dent the economic progress of the U.S. THIS IS VERY BEARISH FOR THE WEEK. If Bernanke thinks the sequester is bad, then the markets will too. He is currently running the show. Friday is going to be bloody carnage if a deal is not made (most likely scenario).
VIX falling today means nothing. By the end of the week, this thing could be at 19.50.
I do not think the real money bulls will be back this week at all.
I am long March 1 SPY 149.50 Puts.
Best of luck.